3000 points oscillate up and down, seize the four main lines, light index heavy stocks
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Review: The market does not make up for the short-term short-term bearish Q: Can Zhangjiang Hi-Tech continue to hold? Analysts said that at the moment when the Shanghai index is nearing the market change, the risk of bottoming down again can only be resolved if the volume exceeds 3100 points. ■ Moderator: Zhao Ziqiang and Xiao Yu caused A shares to fall. The two markets opened lower and lower. In the afternoon, the Shanghai Index fell back to the 20-day moving average and stopped falling. As of the close of the day, the Shanghai Composite Index reported at 3033.66 points, a decrease of 1.44%, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index reported 10568.93 points, a decrease of 1.53%. The turnover of Shenzhen and Shanghai was 557.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.83% from last Friday. Excuse me, what are the main news factors that have caused the market to fall on Monday? Jiuding Desheng: First of all, the long and short game in the international oil market remains unabated. The drop of two barrels of oil on Monday was actually related to the news of the international crude oil market game. From the early market information, the Doha frozen production agreement, which is widely concerned by the market, suffered a "dead death". Under this influence, the opening of the US Brent crude oil plunged more than 6%. This result is closely related to the fundamentals and the crude oil market game, which will continue. The EIA currently predicts that the average price of crude oil in 2016 will be $ 35, which will rise to $ 41 in 2017. Judging from this situation and the game, there is not much room for game in the crude oil market, so the oil and energy stocks in the index stocks fell under pressure yesterday, which is a major factor that caused the stock index to fall on Monday. Second, the impact of the uncertainty caused by the regulation of private equity funds. From the perspective of market participants, private equity funds have become an important force in the A stock market in recent years. With its continuous development, frequent problems have become more apparent. Recently, China Fund Industry Association formally issued the "Management Measures for the Raising of Private Equity Investment Funds" (hereinafter referred to as the "Measures for the Raising of Private Placement Funds"), faced with the above-mentioned chaos, and established a total of 44 articles in seven chapters to establish private placement. Standards, planned the path of private fundraising, agreed on six obligations of fundraising institutions, and clarified the boundaries between private fundraising and various illegal fundraising. It can be said that the "Raising Behavior Management Measures", which is called the "strictest" behavior standard in the industry, provides a basis for self-regulatory regulation of the private equity fund raising market, and will guide the raising institutions to operate legally and in compliance. From the perspective of the historical trajectory, because private equity funds are more active and influential institutions in the stock market, in the short term, the activity or volume of the A-share market will have an uncertain impact. Finally, the stock characteristics of market volume and energy. Judging from the change in volume energy last week, only heavy volume appeared on Wednesday, while the second half of the week was in continuous shrinking. The lack of volume energy indicates that the market is volatile.沪 The Shanghai Index will keep the box oscillating. 证券 Securities Daily reporter: On Monday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened lower, and then kept the low turbulence. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and the GEM Index also fell, and the two markets could shrink slightly. Excuse me, from a technical point of view, how will the market outlook be interpreted? Jufeng Investment Consulting: From a technical point of view, the market is approaching the point of change. Only when the volume exceeds 3100 points, the market can resolve the risk of the end of the rebound. At present, the market is still in the range of 3,000 to 3300 points. Yesterday, the broader market borrowed from the plunge in international oil prices and the plunge of the Nikkei index due to the earthquake. A pullback occurred. It is more likely to be the final wash before the clearance. Investors need not panic. In operation, continue to pay attention to the performance of stagnant blue chips. Tianxin Investment Consulting: Yesterday, the market was affected by multiple factors such as abortion of the Doha meeting crude oil liquidation agreement, the opening of the U.S. crude oil, and the collective plunge of the Asia-Pacific stock market. At present, the Shanghai Index is under great pressure at 3100, and the selling momentum is strong. At present, it is important to pay attention to the support of the Shanghai Index at 3,000 points, which is also an important psychological support point. The Shanghai stock market index will continue to consolidate within the box interval formed between 3000 and 3100. In terms of specific operations, for medium and long-term investors, low-quality and high-quality stocks can be appropriately purchased near 3000 points to pursue long-term returns. Steady investors can appropriately intervene in defensive sectors such as medicine and liquor. Market hotspots are relatively scattered, and subject matter stocks move quickly. Short-term investors should pay attention to position control, and it is advisable to move in and out quickly. At present, the overall valuation of the market is approaching reasonable, especially the weighted sector, so the subsequent supplementary rise of the low-valued sector is also a high probability event. Investors should pay attention to actively looking for valuable depressions and individual stocks. Followers pay attention to the four main lines of the "Securities Daily" reporter: Judging from yesterday's disk market, the unmanned, Xinjiang revitalization, Tibet, energy storage, lottery, smartphones, lithium batteries and other sectors performed well, while the previous stage showed strong facial recognition. , Big Data, Cell Therapy, Medical Devices, Gene Sequencing, Augmented Reality, Electronic Payment and other sectors have fallen sharply. Excuse me, which sectors can the market focus on? Guosen Securities (Quote 002736, Buy): During the rebound window in the second quarter, we are still optimistic about the allocation opportunities of the theme of supply-side reform. Suggested attention: First, coal, steel and other traditional cycle industry leaders, the biggest beneficiaries of supply-side reform; Second, price-increasing chemical sub-sectors, some non-ferrous metals and non-performing asset management, etc. Industry; third, seize the investment opportunities of state-owned enterprise shell companies and screen potential targets from three dimensions: small market value, poor performance, and high demand for transformation. Fourth, pay attention to the new event-driven (AIGI, net worth, information) topics such as Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect and the inclusion of A shares in the MSCI index. It is reported that at present, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is technically ready. The launch of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect in 2016 will be a high probability event. The unique sector, the industry favored by QFII, and AH discount stocks are worthy of attention. UBS Securities: In the second quarter, the economy ushered in a slight rebound and a moderate rebound in inflation. Coupled with the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect and the expectation that A-shares will be included in MSCI, market sentiment will be boosted and the overall A-shares will show a gradual upward trend. As the economy improves, the cyclical sector still has some upside, but considering that the current cyclical sector has seen considerable gains, it is more optimistic about the real estate and home appliances sectors that have benefited from warmer demand and the consumer sector that has benefited from moderate inflation. For individual stocks, the recommended targets are: Midea Group (market 000333, buy), Yonghui Supermarket (market 601933, buy), and Kangli Elevator (market 002367, buy).
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